Pahalgam terror attack investigations: Inputs confirm Pak Army’s role

While the investigations into the terrorist attack in Pahalgam are ongoing, inputs available point not only the role of the Pak Army/ISI but also to that of Gen. Asim Munir, the Pak Army chief. The following inputs merit attention.

First, a former Pak Army officer Adil Raja claimed it was Munir who gave the order for the attack. The sequence of events also suggests this. Munir’s speech proved to be a dog-whistle and the plan was executed by his foot-soldiers. On the 18th April, LeT commander, Saifullah Musa, hosted a rally in Rawal Kot, and declared: “Jihad will continue, guns will rage, and beheadings will continue in Kashmir.” The attack took place on the 22nd April.  Micheal Rubin, a former Pentagon officer stated that Munir is ‘a terrorist’ likening him to Osama bin Laden. He also urged the US to formally designate Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism.

Munir’s background suggests why he justifies ‘the Two Nation’ theory and desires to annex Kashmir, which he calls Pakistan’s “jugular vein” like all radical elements in that country. Munir, the son of an Imam, went to Markazi Madrasah Dar-ul-Tajweed, an Islamic seminary in Rawalpindi for his early education and his views were shaped by its environment. His statement on the 16th April reflected a deeply ingrained, Islamist and anti-Hindu mindset. He follows the policy of his predecessors towards India: the use of terrorism as a state instrument to deal with India. 

Second, at least one of the terrorists was former Pak Army personnel: Hashim Musa, the Pakistani terrorist behind the Pahalgam massacre, is a former para commando of Pakistan Army’s Special Forces. According to the NIA, eyewitnesses provided critical details, reporting more than five attackers involved in the assault.

Third, some news channels quoting sources reported that the terrorists in Pahalgam used the highly encrypted Chinese telecom equipment, which China has given to the Pak Army. This enabled them to remain in touch with their handlers in Pakistan and each other without getting detected.

Fourth, the training was imparted by the Pak Army. A geopolitical activist Mark Kinra has revealed the presence of the Kashmiri terrorist groups at the Kakul Military Academy, providing irrefutable evidence of the linkages between the Pakistani Army and the Kashmiri terrorists. Therefore, whether they served in the Pak Army or not, is immaterial.  They all receive rigorous training by the specialised personnel. 

Fifth, the terrorist strategy of inquiring about the names and identities of the deceased tourists was in line with Munir’s speech.

Sixth, the timing also indicates the compulsions of the Pak Army and Munir to escalate terrorism to divert the attention of the Pakistanis from their problems and of the International Community. The Pak economy has been in doldrums and the Pak Army’s hold on the Pak polity is being contested increasingly by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP with the support of Afghanistan increased its attacks on the Pakistani security forces. Baluchistan and PoK were witnessing a demand for separation from Pakistan. In the US Senate, a bill was introduced in March calling for sanctions on Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Syed Asim Munir and other generals and officials for the prosecution of political opponents, including the imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan. 

For Munir, the post-2019 developments in J&K were frustrating. While the situation in J&K improved significantly, India’s rise globally continued unabated. In J&K, terrorist attacks came down significantly and local recruitment declined with economic growth touching 7.8% – a shade better than the national average. The tourism sector witnessed considerable growth that created employment opportunities for local youth. With better security measures, infiltrators were neutralised at the border. Munir could not swallow the loss of this issue, which was essential to tighten its hold on the Pak polity. Hence, the revival of terrorism was crucial for Munir/the Pak Army. Munir’s extension is due and could further push Pakistan to the abyss.

India was focussing globally on countering terrorism leading to Pakistan’s marginalisation. The Indo-US Joint Statement called on Pakistan to expeditiously bring to justice the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai, and Pathankot attacks and ensure that its territory was not used to carry out cross-border terrorist attacks. This was a strong message to Pakistan. Earlier, a similar mention was made of the Pak-based terrorist groups in the joint declaration with Russia. Prospects of isolation of Pakistan, when it needed funds, must have worried the Pak Establishment.

Seventh, the Resistance Front (TRF) claimed the responsibility but later withdrew stating that it was a technical flaw. This group is the new name for the Lashkar-e Taiba (LeT) and includes terrorists from some other outfits like Hizb-ul Mujahideen (HuM). This was done in the post-2019 period to shed the Islamist identity, give a secular nomenclature to attract the international community and evade scrutiny. Pakistan pressed that TRF was not included in the UN statement. This exposed close links between this group and the Pak Establishment. 

The Pahalgam attack is seen as an attempt by Munir to create a wider endeavour aimed at dividing India’s homogeneous society. This larger dimension should be kept in our calculus.

India’s response is well calculated with PM Modi making it clear that Pakistan will not be able to use its territory for sponsoring terrorism against India in future. India is clear that terrorism can wither away only when its support systems- funding, arms, and recruitment- are dismantled and destroyed.  While India has taken steps to punish Pakistan through several bold steps, Pakistan like in the past is playing the nuclear card to ensure that India gets pressurised to stop taking further action against Pakistan. While their leaders boasted their capabilities to draw the attention of the International Community, the Pak Army displayed manufactured allegations against India. India needs to continue pressuring Pakistan by all means to ensure that the pain this time is unbearable. The International Community needs to understand the situation realistically.  In the words of Jaishankar, India seeks partners currently and not preachers.