Why India Doesn’t Need A War To Counter Pakistan
- Somnath Mukherjee
- May 30, 2025, 20:49 IST IST
New Delhi has hit upon the best strategy vis-à-vis Islamabad: short, sharp military ops that buy long periods free of dramatic terror strikes & don’t disrupt the world’s fastest growing economy
David vs Goliath is a favoured metaphor for depicting rivalries. In the Indo-Pak scenario too, the metaphor fits perfectly – one of the Indian David facing off against the Pakistani Goliath. Counterintuitive framing? Not really. The basic datum is as follows. India has a lot more to lose – pace of growth, migration of nearly 1bn Indians to upper middle-income status, more opportunities in exciting areas of AI, semiconductors, as well as old economy areas like manufacturing. In comparison, Pakistan is an economic basket case. Opportunity costs for India are far higher. Ergo, the room for manoeuvre and amount of capability brought to bear are a lot less for India than for Pakistan in a conflict scenario. In short, when it comes to a hot conflict, it’s the Indian David facing off against the Pakistani Goliath.
In effect, this praxis of David and Goliath informs India’s Pak policy more than anything else. As the David, India’s not trying big, heroic outcomes. On the contrary, the overarching aim is modest – create a security umbrella under which India’s progress can continue uninterrupted. In that pursuit, the Indian state’s responses, including the more overt versions in the last decade, have been game theoretic. Change the decision calculus to force Pakistan to recalibrate its own boards. Process of recalibration hopefully buys India longer periods free of dramatic, large terror attacks.
In effect, this praxis of David and Goliath informs India’s Pak policy more than anything else. As the David, India’s not trying big, heroic outcomes. On the contrary, the overarching aim is modest – create a security umbrella under which India’s progress can continue uninterrupted. In that pursuit, the Indian state’s responses, including the more overt versions in the last decade, have been game theoretic. Change the decision calculus to force Pakistan to recalibrate its own boards. Process of recalibration hopefully buys India longer periods free of dramatic, large terror attacks.
