Pakistan will be hit hard by Indus water pause, especially in politically important Punjab: Prof Anjal Prakash

Water is in the headlines again, not just as a resource but as a strategic asset. Prof Anjal Prakash, research director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, ISB, has closely studied these issues and been lead author on multiple IPCC reports. In an interview with Sunday Times, he discusses the use of water as a weapon, impact of melting glaciers, and how to cut annual flood risks in Indian citiesOn the contrary, I wrote about water to be used as a weapon way back in 2023 when India sought its revision on the basis of new realities of the Indus Basin. The IWT is one of the most unfair treaties India has signed with around 80% of the flow of the river going to Pakistan. In the past, I did advocate for the IWT to be a bridge for peace but looking at recent developments: water should be used as a strategic weapon in our national interest. Suspending it will have severe short and long-term ramifications for Pakistan’s economy. A major proportion of Pakistan’s Punjabi and Sindhi farmers depend on Indus for irrigation, and agriculture contributes to around one-fourth of the country’s GDP. Blocking its flow will help counter its Punjab-based politics that wields terrorism as a strategic weapon against India. India might experience some international criticism and strained relations with nations such as China, but it has a logic for keeping it in abeyance as the upper riparian country.Simultaneously, India should maximise water utilisation for development, particularly in J&K and downstream states. This includes infrastructure projects to divert Indus Basin river water for irrigation, hydropower, and other uses. Building canals and storage enhances water security and boosts regional economies. However, it is important that projects don’t disturb the fragile ecosystem of the Himalayas.Melting glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) significantly affect the Indus Basin’s water variability. In fact, amongst the three major rivers that feed south Asia — Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra — Indus relies very heavily on the glaciers for its base water flow. Due to climate change, the increased meltwater leads to higher river flows, potentially causing floods and erosion. However, as glaciers shrink, this eventually leads to reduced water availability, especially during dry seasons. This variability impacts agriculture, water supply, hydropower generation and ecosystems. Mitigating the adverse effects of glacial melt on the Indus Basin is essential.Ice funerals, like the one for Yala, do capture public attention through emotional storytelling and visual representation of loss, making the abstract concept of climate change more relatable and immediate. However, their long-term impact on galvanising climate action is debatable. To be truly effective, these events need to be coupled with clear calls to action, such as supporting specific policies, reducing carbon emissions, or promoting sustainable practices. Without that, the potential for meaningful change could be lost.A multi-pronged policy approach is crucial. First, prioritise integrated urban watershed management, mandating holistic planning that preserves natural drainage, creates retention ponds, and implements permeable pavements to enhance water infiltration and reduce runoff. Second, enforce stringent zoning regulations that restrict construction in floodplains and ecologically sensitive zones. Building codes must prioritise flood resilience through elevated foundations and water-resistant materials. Third, invest in advanced drainage infrastructure, upgrading existing systems, incorporating real-time monitoring and early warning systems, and implementing nature-based solutions like urban forests to enhance water absorption. These policies, implemented in tandem, will significantly reduce urban flood risks. Unfortunately, these are known facts, and I am not stating anything new. What we need is a political force to get this knowledge into action.The Haryana proposal could lead to a significant underestimation of the range’s actual extent. This arbitrary height limit disregards the geological continuity and ecological importance of lower-lying features that are integral to the Aravali ecosystem. Many crucial habitats and recharge zones may be excluded, fragmenting the range and weakening its overall resilience. Properly defining, mapping, and measuring natural systems like the Aravallis is vital for several reasons. Accurate demarcation enables effective conservation strategies, preventing encroachment and unregulated development. It also leads to informed land-use planning, ensuring that economic activities align with environmental protection, and allows for better monitoring of ecological changes, like erosion or deforestation, and supports efforts to mitigate their impacts. Ultimately, this comprehensive approach is essential for preserving biodiversity, maintaining ecosystem services, and promoting sustainable development.The UN declaration highlights the urgent need to understand and protect these vital resources. Cryosphere research in the Indian subcontinent, particularly the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, lags behind that of other major glacial regions like the Arctic and Antarctic. While there's growing recognition of the HKH's importance, research efforts face challenges such as limited long-term data, sparse observation networks, and a lack of standardized methodologies. This hinders accurate assessments of glacial melt rates, snow cover dynamics, and their impacts on water resources. Funding constraints, logistical difficulties in accessing remote areas, and geopolitical sensitivities further impede research progress. Although there's increasing investment in cryosphere research in the subcontinent, closing the gap with other glacial regions requires enhanced international collaboration, technology transfer, and capacity building. This includes establishing robust monitoring networks, developing advanced modelling tools, and fostering interdisciplinary research to comprehensively understand the cryosphere's role in the region's climate and water security.